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Though the exact figure could be a hot topic for a stormy debate, most sources claim that 90-95% of bettors lose their money from betting, especially if they are in the game of gambling for a long time.
It’s the classic tale of sports bettors. You have turned 18 and have a great understanding of cricket. It’s the IPL season and cricket-crazies are almost hooked to their TV set or crowding the venues. If you are watching the game online, sport ads for a sportsbook are popping up in the ‘break’ time. These cricket betting apps are full of fun. You have some spare cash and you can afford to place a bet. If luck is on your side, you may get a good payout.
In the above para, ‘YOU’ may look like a random character and sportsbooks love you most. They have a system in place to identify bettors like you and extract money out of them. Let’s dive into the reasons why they track and trap you and how you can avoid falling into it.
THE VIG
Vig is a short form of vigorosh. It’s the sportsbook’s commission. For every market offered by them, the odds on each side are cut by a certain amount to generate commissions for the sportsbook.
Seasoned bettors (also called smart bettors) usually calculate expected value before placing a bet. Expected value refers to the amount of money that a bettor expects to make on the market.
In simple equation,
EV (Expected Value) = O (decimal odds) * P (probability) – 1
If EV is positive, the market is likely to make money. If EV is negative, the market is likely to lose your money. With this equation in place, we can easily figure out the vig for a given market.
Let’s imagine an ideal 50/50 market. Though the probability is 50%, the decimal odds will be 1.91. If these values are put in the above equation, EV is -0.045 (-45%). If you were to place the bet a thousand times on the market, you may lose 4.5% of the total stake you used. In other words, if you bet a dollar each time, the total loss will amount to 4.5% of $1000.
Now let’s suppose that it’s not a 50/50 market condition and we don’t have any idea about the probability of outcome. However, it is possible to calculate the vig for the market even though we’re not sure about the accuracy of predicted probabilities.
The purpose of the brief description about the vig is to familiarize you about the hard reality that mathematics always supports hard truth. Therefore, if you want to be a long-term successful bettor after 96in app login, you should be skilled at predicting the winning markets 5% or more accurately than the sportsbooks do. The more accurate your prediction, the greater is the chance of making worthwhile profits.
Let’s now accept a bitter reality. Recreational bettors (also called square bettors) overestimate their skills at sniffing out positive value markets. Compared to these casual bettors, sportsbooks are really smart at hiring the qualified people who have intelligence and intuition to pick the right markets. Sportsbooks also invest in AI-based algorithms and models that are pretty good at prediction.
They are doing business and a lot of their success depends on their being accurate about the betting market.
Think Smarter Than Sportsbooks
If you want to earn success as a bettor in the long run, think and play smarter than sportsbooks. Driven by their financial interests, these sportsbooks are more serious about making sure that their predictions are as accurate as possible.
However, their predictions are not correct all the time. Successful bettors are always good at finding edges and making the most of them. However, edges are not easy to find for all popular betting markets. On top of that, most bettors find an edge via a predictive model or algorithm.
Parlays: Adding to Misery
Parlays bring sportsbooks a billion dollar business. However, parlays are complicated and create pain points for recreational bettors because they lack insights into the game. Picking positive value lines is extremely important and unfortunately, most bettors don’t do that and hence, suffer losses in betting. Every additional line added to a parlay further reduces a bettor’s expected value.
There’s no doubt that parlays are popular, offering a bigger payout compared to other options. As people, mostly square bettors, often overestimate their ability of picking winners, it is a lot easier than something heavily relying upon probability. Certainty is a utopian concept in this field and there is always a chance – sometimes strong, sometimes slim, that an unbackable favorite will suffer loss.
Wrapping Up
Though the role of psychological factors cannot be ruled out, a lot of math works behind identifying profitable bets after 96 login. No emotions but only logic should be relied on to find out the worthwhile bets while reducing the risk to a minimal figure. To some, 90% will look like a concocted figure but remember, most bettors in the industry are casual ones and they tend to pick the wrong markets.
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