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One of the most exciting aspects of the Super Bowl is the wide range of betting opportunities. While traditional bets like point spreads, money lines, and total points are always available, the Super Bowl also introduces unique wagers not commonly seen during the regular season. Among these is the “octopus” bet, which has gained popularity in recent years.
If you’re not an experienced NFL bettor, you may be unfamiliar with this term. When I first heard it, I assumed it had something to do with an actual octopus—similar to how Red Wings fans throw them onto the ice during hockey games. However, in reality, this wager has nothing to do with the sea creature. Let’s explore what an “octopus” means in NFL betting, how it originated, and whether or not it’s a smart bet, especially when placing your bets through a trusted Agen bola.
What Exactly is an Octopus Bet?
Despite its unusual name, an octopus in NFL betting is quite simple. It happens when the same player scores a touchdown and follows it up by successfully converting a two-point attempt in the same drive. Since both plays result in a total of eight points, the term “octopus” was born.
However, for a play to qualify as an octopus, the same player must be responsible for both the touchdown and the two-point conversion. For instance, if a quarterback throws a touchdown pass and later runs in the two-point conversion, it does not count as an octopus.
For those unfamiliar with two-point conversions, they are an alternative to the extra-point kick that teams can attempt after scoring a touchdown. Instead of taking a one-point kick from 33 yards out, the offense lines up at the two-yard line and must get the ball into the end zone. This is significantly more challenging, with a conversion rate of about 47.5% since 2015, compared to extra points made 94.6% of the time.
As for the term itself, it was coined by Mitch Goldich in 2019 while working at Sports Illustrated. He refined the idea on Twitter before deciding on “octopus” based on a suggestion from Mike Wallace. The name stuck, and now major sportsbooks offer the “octopus” as a betting option during the Super Bowl.
Should You Bet on an Octopus?
Last year’s Super Bowl saw Jalen Hurts complete an octopus, rewarding “yes” bettors with +1400 odds on DraftKings. However, this bet isn’t mathematically sound. Since 2014, there have been 93 octopi over 2,724 games a rate of just 3.41%. The true odds should be closer to +2840, but sportsbooks only offer around +1100, meaning the house has a strong edge. While betting “no” seems logical, it’s also overpriced. For example, DraftKings lists “no octopus” at -6000, far worse than its actual probability.
Fun Octopus Facts
- The first octopus happened in 1994, the year the NFL introduced two-point conversions.
- Randy Moss has three career octopi, while Todd Gurley leads with four.
- The Packers and Vikings lead all teams with 11 octopus occurrences each.
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